A Practical Man's Proof of God Existence - Proof 4 (Bayes Theorem)
A BRITISH physicist has calculated that the mathematical probability of God existing is two-to-one in favor.
But even though some scientists might find these odds exceptionally high, Dr Stephen Unwin was surprised. As a committed Christian, his own faith had persuaded him previously that there was a more than 90 per cent chance that God really existed.
Dr Unwin, a graduate of Imperial College, London who studied for his doctorate at Manchester University, used the 200-year-old Bayes' Theorem to calculate that there was a 67 per cent chance that God existed.
He weighed the existence of evil and suffering against miracles, divided into supernatural events and miracles that occur when prayers are answered. He also factored in free will, humankind's innate goodness and sense of morality and the many philosophical arguments both for and against the existence of God.
Bayes' Theorem is named after Thomas Bayes, an 18th-century English mathematician who was also a Presbyterian minister. The theorem emerged in the 20th century after a group of mathematicians decided there must be more to probability than tossing a coin.
Bayesians believe that probability is the level of partial belief that something is true on a scale of nought to one hundred. Dr Unwin, who is now resident in the US having been sent on secondment to the Department of Energy, where he was employed to calculate the probability of nuclear s, has his own consulting company in Columbus, Ohio, where he specializes in risk analysis and risk management.
He spells out his argument for the probability of the existence of God in a new book, The Probability of God: A Simple Calculation that Proves the Ultimate Truth, to be published in the UK on April 30.
The equation calculates "posterior probability" by multiplying "prior probability" by the "likelihood function". This is represented mathematically as P(G|E)=A.P(G).P(E|G). In the equation, G is the proposition that God exists and E is the evidence.
Dr Unwin, 48, said: "Bayes's Theorem works by looking at the evidence around and calculates whether the evidence would be more likely to be produced if the proposition, G, was true or false. I lined up a series of areas of evidence, some in favor of the truth of the proposition and some not in favor."
He said his analysis started from a position of "absolute ignorance" as to whether God existed. "Most people, when they address these things, have an established view and want to eliminate uncertainties. I wanted to go to the areas commonly debated and embrace rather than eliminate the uncertainties."
My views:
Keep everything aside and think this way. There could be two possibilities, one god exists and other he doesn't. If he exists then all relevant theories of hell and heaven, must be true too else not. Now assuming that he doesn't exists and so does his theories of hell and heaven, we can start living a criminal life, since we'll never be put up in hell as there would be no record of our crimes after we die. We can start living selfishly. But doing so, will make living this life too. Moreover, in case if god would be existing and so does our crime record up to him then it would be hell afterward too. So its better to live a spiritual life committing nice and good causes on earth, making it livable for others too.
In other words, since there is no proof of god's non-existence too. It is at least 50% that he exists, so if we can't spent money on god and temples/churches, we can better use our money for orphans, old age homes, poor peoples and needful persons. Because if other 50% (which says that he don't exists) goes false, then we would be having no more time to do good things again.
But even though some scientists might find these odds exceptionally high, Dr Stephen Unwin was surprised. As a committed Christian, his own faith had persuaded him previously that there was a more than 90 per cent chance that God really existed.
Dr Unwin, a graduate of Imperial College, London who studied for his doctorate at Manchester University, used the 200-year-old Bayes' Theorem to calculate that there was a 67 per cent chance that God existed.
He weighed the existence of evil and suffering against miracles, divided into supernatural events and miracles that occur when prayers are answered. He also factored in free will, humankind's innate goodness and sense of morality and the many philosophical arguments both for and against the existence of God.
Bayes' Theorem is named after Thomas Bayes, an 18th-century English mathematician who was also a Presbyterian minister. The theorem emerged in the 20th century after a group of mathematicians decided there must be more to probability than tossing a coin.
Bayesians believe that probability is the level of partial belief that something is true on a scale of nought to one hundred. Dr Unwin, who is now resident in the US having been sent on secondment to the Department of Energy, where he was employed to calculate the probability of nuclear s, has his own consulting company in Columbus, Ohio, where he specializes in risk analysis and risk management.
He spells out his argument for the probability of the existence of God in a new book, The Probability of God: A Simple Calculation that Proves the Ultimate Truth, to be published in the UK on April 30.
The equation calculates "posterior probability" by multiplying "prior probability" by the "likelihood function". This is represented mathematically as P(G|E)=A.P(G).P(E|G). In the equation, G is the proposition that God exists and E is the evidence.
Dr Unwin, 48, said: "Bayes's Theorem works by looking at the evidence around and calculates whether the evidence would be more likely to be produced if the proposition, G, was true or false. I lined up a series of areas of evidence, some in favor of the truth of the proposition and some not in favor."
He said his analysis started from a position of "absolute ignorance" as to whether God existed. "Most people, when they address these things, have an established view and want to eliminate uncertainties. I wanted to go to the areas commonly debated and embrace rather than eliminate the uncertainties."
My views:
Keep everything aside and think this way. There could be two possibilities, one god exists and other he doesn't. If he exists then all relevant theories of hell and heaven, must be true too else not. Now assuming that he doesn't exists and so does his theories of hell and heaven, we can start living a criminal life, since we'll never be put up in hell as there would be no record of our crimes after we die. We can start living selfishly. But doing so, will make living this life too. Moreover, in case if god would be existing and so does our crime record up to him then it would be hell afterward too. So its better to live a spiritual life committing nice and good causes on earth, making it livable for others too.
In other words, since there is no proof of god's non-existence too. It is at least 50% that he exists, so if we can't spent money on god and temples/churches, we can better use our money for orphans, old age homes, poor peoples and needful persons. Because if other 50% (which says that he don't exists) goes false, then we would be having no more time to do good things again.
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